Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q3 2024 | “Full-year revenue is expected to show low single-digit growth, now anticipated at the upper end” | $11,892, which is ~8.4% higher than Q3 2023’s $10,966 | Surpassed |
Operating Expenses | Q3 2024 | “Total operating expenses … at the upper end of the low single-digit percentage increase range” | SG&A + R&D rose from $4,245 (Q3 2023: 2,003 + 2,242) to $4,357 (Q3 2024: 1,983 + 2,374), an increase of ~2.6% | Met |
Non-GAAP EPS | Q3 2024 | “2024 non-GAAP EPS raised to $0.60 – $0.90” | GAAP EPS is $0.60.While non-GAAP is not explicitly shown, GAAP EPS at $0.60 suggests it is within or near the guided non-GAAP range | Met |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Sotyktu | Slower-than-anticipated performance in Q2 2024 due to competition and access. In Q1 2024, ~10k paid prescriptions with a goal to double by Q4 2024. In Q4 2023, showed ~40% sequential sales growth (excluding clinical supply) and expanded access. | Sales nearly doubled year-over-year; fourth-quarter sales expected similar to Q3 due to rebating increases. Over time, demand growth is expected to offset pressures. | Access and performance improving |
Camzyos | Q2 2024: Tripled year-over-year, ~6,900 patients on commercial drug, large potential. Q1 2024: Sales nearly tripled year-over-year, impacted by inventory/gross-to-net. Q4 2023: Continued confidence in growth with marketing investments. | No mention in the Q3 2024 documents. | Not mentioned in Q3 |
Breyanzi | Q2 2024: +55% year-over-year, driven by strong demand and expanded manufacturing. Q1 2024: >50% growth YoY with improved capacity. Q4 2023: Sales doubled year-over-year, expecting more capacity improvements in 2024. | Sales more than doubled vs. prior year; U.S. grew 40% Q/Q driven by new indications (follicular, mantle cell). Expect modest sequential growth in Q4 as demand normalizes. | Continued strong growth |
Opdualag | Q2 2024: Double-digit growth with focus on new indications. Q1 2024: Standard of care in 1L melanoma, >70% growth YoY. Q4 2023: More than doubled full-year sales, strong U.S. uptake. | Delivered strong double-digit growth, ~30% market share in 1L melanoma in the U.S.. | Consistently expanding share |
Opdivo (IV-to-SC) | Q2 2024: Aims to convert 30–40% of IV business to SC well before 2028. Q1 2024: Planning SC launch by early 2025. Q4 2023: Expected early 2024 launch. | Targeting 30–40% of U.S. Opdivo business to subcutaneous formulation before loss of exclusivity in 2028. FDA approval anticipated end of year. | Ongoing subcutaneous shift |
Revlimid | Q2 2024: Expect $4.5–$5B, variability from generics. Q1 2024: Facing increased U.S. generic volume but remains a strong cash flow driver. Q4 2023: Anticipates a $1.5–$2B step-down from LOE in 2024. | Raised full-year guidance to ~$5.5B, generic erosion a headwind but partially offset by strong performance. | Maintaining partial strength amid generics |
Generic entries (Sprycel, Abraxane, Pomalyst) | No mention in Q2 2024, Q1 2024, or Q4 2023 documents. | Sprycel LOE in U.S. on Sep 1, 2024; Abraxane facing U.S. generics; Pomalyst EU LOE Aug 2024. Erosion impacting legacy portfolio. | Newly cited in Q3 |
Cobenfi (KarXT) | Previously referred to as KarXT. Q2 2024: Anticipated FDA approval by late September, preparing for Q4 launch. Q1 2024: Focus on KarXT’s potential vs. older agents, expected 2024 launch. Q4 2023: No mention of “Cobenfi” or “KarXT.” | Approved and launched for schizophrenia. Differentiated efficacy without typical antipsychotic weight/sedation issues. Reimbursement ramp expected in second half of 2025. | Official brand introduction in Q3 |
Late-stage pipeline (milvexian, LPA1, Ibertimide) | Q2 2024: Milvexian potential in AF/ACS, LPA1 for pulmonary fibrosis, Ibertimide in Phase III for multiple myeloma. Q1 2024: Minimal mention of Milvexian. Q4 2023: No mention. | Updates on Milvexian (enrollment increase, data ~2027), LPA1, and Ibertimide for multiple myeloma. | Steady progress, expanding scope |
Karuna acquisition & financial discipline | Q2 2024: Prepared for KarXT launch; one-time R&D charge impacted results. Q1 2024: $12.1B in-process R&D charge, strategic ROI focus. Q4 2023: Emphasis on OpEx discipline post Karuna close. | Acquisition strengthens long-term growth, synergy with Cobenfi (KarXT). On track to achieve $1.5B in cost savings by 2025. Plan to pay down $10B debt. | Consistent emphasis on synergy and cost discipline |
Cost-saving initiatives & reinvestment | Q2 2024: $1.5B savings program, reinvested in growth drivers. Q1 2024: Reductions in clinical expenses/headcount, reinvestment in top assets. Q4 2023: Focus on efficiency to fund new launches. | On track to achieve $1.5B in savings by end of 2025. Savings reinvested into high-ROI products and R&D. | Ongoing cost optimization fueling growth |
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) & Eliquis | Q2 2024: Awaiting Maximum Fair Price details, expects partial benefits in 2025 but monitoring spillover. Q1 2024: Major impact forecast by 2026, MFP publicly available in Sep 2024. Q4 2023: Scenario planning for pricing/risk. | Part D redesign seen as net neutral for portfolio; favorable coverage gap removal for Eliquis largely offset by catastrophic-phase costs on other products. | Continued caution, net neutral effect |
Abecma | Q2 2024: No direct competitiveness update. Q1 2024: Highlighted predictable safety vs. BCMA competitors, aiming for KarMMa-3–based growth. Q4 2023: Facing BCMA competition but expanding site footprint. | No mention regarding competitiveness versus other BCMA therapies in Q3 2024. | Not discussed in Q3 |
-
Cobenfi Launch and Access Strategy
Q: What's the plan for Cobenfi's access over the next year?
A: Management is excited about Cobenfi's approval, the first innovative schizophrenia therapy in decades. They see it as a 2025 launch, expecting sales to ramp in the second half after attaining broad access. Over 80% of patients are on Medicare or Medicaid, and they anticipate achieving 80% to 85% access within roughly 12 months post-approval. -
Milvexian Trial Update
Q: Why increase the milvexian trial's sample size due to lower event rates?
A: The lower blended event rate is encouraging, prompting an increase in sample size to ensure the study reads out in 2027. The study is periodically reviewed by the DMC, with no indications to alter the course, and they remain supportive. -
SOTYKTU Access and Pricing Outlook
Q: What's the outlook for SOTYKTU's access and pricing next year?
A: SOTYKTU's performance has been slower than desired, but progress is being made. They've doubled zero step edits access to approximately 50% in Q3 and expect broader access in 2021, albeit with significant rebating affecting gross-to-net. Upcoming psoriatic arthritis trial readouts are anticipated by year-end. -
Revenue Guidance Increase
Q: Is the revenue guidance increase solely due to Revlimid?
A: Strong performance, including raising Revlimid guidance to $5.5 billion, led to raising the full-year outlook to 5% growth versus prior year. While Revlimid contributed, they also face generic entries impacting other products. -
Sustainable Growth Amid Revenue Pressures
Q: How will you sustain growth with upcoming revenue pressures?
A: Despite 2026 revenue pressures and the end of the diabetes royalty stream, they focus on a young portfolio of growing assets like Cobenfi and Breyanzi. Late-stage pipeline progress with assets like milvexian and LPA1 adds confidence. Financial discipline allows continued investment and strategic flexibility. -
GPRC5D CAR-T Market Opportunity
Q: How do you view the GPRC5D CAR-T's market potential relative to Abecma?
A: Encouraged by early results, they see GPRC5D CAR-T as a significant asset, potentially used after BCMA CAR-T treatments like Abecma. They believe its single-dose administration and favorable toxicity profile position it as a leading cell therapy. -
IRA Impact on 2025 Dynamics
Q: What's the net impact of IRA changes on your portfolio?
A: The elimination of the coverage gap is favorable for Eliquis, but offset by obligations on products like Revlimid and POMALYST in the catastrophic phase. Overall, they see the impact as essentially net neutral across the portfolio. -
Cobenfi Label and Physician Adoption
Q: Are label warnings for Cobenfi expected to hinder adoption?
A: They are pleased that Cobenfi's label lacks atypical antipsychotic class warnings. While some monitoring is recommended, it's consistent with current practice and not anticipated to be a barrier. Feedback has been very positive, reinforcing confidence in its safety profile. -
Subcutaneous Opdivo Protection
Q: How do your protections for subcu Opdivo compare to Merck's KEYTRUDA?
A: They look forward to the PDUFA date for subcutaneous nivolumab in late December, planning to shift 30% to 40% of the U.S. Opdivo business ahead of LOE in late 2028. The broad patent estate for subcu forms will extend their I-O franchise into the next decade. -
Cell Therapy CD19 Asset Data
Q: What's your perspective on upcoming CD19 asset data and its market?
A: They are enthusiastic about presenting data for their CD19 asset, seeing cell therapies as transformational in autoimmune diseases. They will assess where CAR-T therapies fit compared to T-cell engagers and bispecifics, considering factors like administration frequency and patient suitability.